Helped by incremental policy support, China’s GDP growth is likely to be in line with the “around 5 percent” growth target. Looking ahead, we (at UBS Global Wealth Management) expect GDP growth in 2024 to settle in the mid-4 percent range as the real estate sector’s weakness continues and the economic boost following the post-COVID-19 reopening of the economy fades. But more than 5 percent growth is possible if active policy easing continues, consumption recovery runs its full course, and the property market stabilizes.
In the longer term, China will enter a medium-growth period with potential GDP growth of 4-4.5 percent in the coming five to 10 years (compared with the nearly 6 percent over the past decade and 10 percent in the early 2000s). But if the transition goes as planned, the Chinese economy’s sheer size means it…
